Risks To Peace
RISKS TO GLOBAL PEACE
GLOBAL PRESSURES AND RISKS
Global peace is the prerequisite for a self-regulating market system—yet such a system requires ever-increasing global standards of living alongside ever-decreasing global natural resources.
The Current Moment
As of May 2026, the Doomsday Clock stands at 85 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to global catastrophe.¹
On the path to a Type I civilisation as envisaged by the Kardashev scale, humanity currently measures at ~0.73.² Depending on the physicist one asks, the remaining 0.27 gap may represent 100 to 200 years of development, and given the realities of resource competition and the existence of nuclear weapons, the prospects of reaching Type I do not look favourable.
*¹ Doomsday Clock: A symbolic clock maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1947. It represents the likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe, with midnight representing total disaster. The clock considers nuclear risk, climate change and disruptive technologies.
*² Kardashev Scale: A method of measuring a civilisation’s level of technological advancement based on its energy consumption. Proposed by Soviet astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev in 1964. A Type I civilisation can harness all the energy available on its home planet. The 0.72 figure is an estimate (based on Carl Sagan’s interpolation) of humanity’s current standing.
The Scientific Framework We Question
The terminal decree issued on life forms on Earth—what science calls the thermodynamic perspective of life—is underpinned by the Conservation of Energy and the Laws of Entropy. These man-made laws are derived from observations of matter-energy systems and prescribe a particular vision of human development based on radiating motion.
We do not dispute that these laws accurately describe matter-energy. We do, however, dispute that they describe the whole of nature.
How Matter-Energy Dependence Has Generated Disharmony
Dependence on matter-energy has been central to human development since the Western Industrial Revolution. It has also generated significant disharmonies between humanity and nature—the art of the Divine.
| Energy Source | Contribution | Harm |
|---|---|---|
| Fossil fuels (matter-energy) | Drove industrialisation and economic growth | Environmental degradation and climate change; emissions cause air pollution, global warming, severe weather events (planetary), and health problems (individual) |
| Nuclear energy (matter-energy) | Provides large-scale, low-carbon electricity | Risk of accidents (Chernobyl, Fukushima); long-term radioactive waste management; provides pretext for weapon development, threatening nature, the art of the Divine |
| Sustainable/renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro) | Reduces emissions compared to fossil fuels | Cannot fully mitigate the dire predictions of the thermodynamic perspective; do not escape the underlying entropic framework |
Two Global Pressures, One Root Cause
Matter-energy prescriptions for human development present two fundamental global pressures:
| Pressure | Consequences |
|---|---|
| 1. Environmental degradation | Harmful emissions, climate change, biodiversity loss, crossing of tipping points |
| 2. Natural-resource depletion | Increased extraction costs, economic instability, resource rivalry |
Both threaten life forms in different ways. Either can lead to inter-state conflict.
How Environmental Degradation Could Lead to Inter-State Conflict
| Pathway | Mechanism |
|---|---|
| Resource scarcity | Degradation depletes water, arable land, and forests |
| Economic stress | Reduced agricultural productivity and rising costs strain economies, leading to social unrest |
| Environmental migration | Refugees cross borders seeking better conditions, causing tensions with host countries |
| Competition | Neighbouring states compete for scarce resources, leading to diplomatic conflicts and, in extreme cases, military confrontation |
| Climate change | Extreme weather events and rising sea levels aggravate existing tensions and create new territorial/resource conflicts |
How Natural-Resource Depletion Could Lead to Inter-State Conflict
| Pathway | Mechanism |
|---|---|
| Resource competition | As oil, minerals, and water become scarce, states compete for control of these assets |
| Economic dependence | Countries reliant on specific resources face instability if those resources deplete, leading to conflict with resource-rich neighbours |
| Territorial disputes | Disagreements over resource-rich areas escalate into territorial claims and armed conflict |
| Environmental damage | Over-exploitation damages ecosystems, further straining relations between states |
| Political instability | Resource depletion undermines political stability, making states more vulnerable to internal and external conflict |
Current Risk Assessment
The global peace risk level is currently very high—a conclusion confirmed by the Doomsday Clock, compiled by scientists.
Environmental Degradation: seven Critical Issues
| # | Issue |
|---|---|
| 1 | Irreversible climate-change tipping points have already been crossed, with more expected as threshold temperatures are passed |
| 2 | Forecasts for the 2050 global energy mix show significant growth in renewables, but fossil fuels and nuclear energy will still play a major role |
| 3 | Matter-energy (fossil fuels and nuclear) is predicted to remain a significant part of the global energy mix until at least 2050 |
| 4 | Renewables are likely to grow but face challenges in achieving timely and effective penetration of the energy mix before 2050 |
| 5 | The predicted energy mix to 2050 does not support a net-zero emissions world by that date |
| 6 | No known energy resource can slow or reverse environmental degradation without increased reliance on matter-energy |
| 7 | Fusion—even if commercially viable after 2050—remains another example of radiating matter-energy that would not satisfy the four core criteria of ESPT |
Natural-Resource Depletion: Two Main Issues
| # | Issue |
|---|---|
| 1 | Increased costs: Depletion raises extraction and production costs, impacting economies and consumers |
| 2 | Nations competing for resources: Countries engage in long-term strategic planning to secure resources for their prosperity, often at the expense of others. This competition manifests overtly (confrontational strategies) or covertly (economic measures) |
The Growth-Energy Trilemma
These factors suggest that the dire predictions of the thermodynamic perspective of life—attributed to nature by science—cannot be overcome by man-made solutions alone.
Indeed, futile endeavours are evident in the inability of science and politics to reconcile the Growth-Energy Trilemma, where each nation must pursue growth while trading off three incompatible pressures:
| Pressure | Description |
|---|---|
| Environmental Preservation | Protecting natural systems from degradation |
| Energy Equity | Providing affordable, accessible energy to all citizens |
| Energy Security | Ensuring reliable, uninterrupted energy supply |
Under the matter-energy paradigm, no nation can fully achieve all three simultaneously.
Our Response: A Different Hypothesis
Our thought experiments aim to reveal that nature has made ample provisions for humanity’s developmental needs.
We hold that incomplete scientific knowledge on energy has steered human development onto sub-optimal paths since the Industrial Revolution. Contrary to scientific claims grounded in matter-energy alone, we aim to reveal that:
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The Earth is neither energy-limited nor inherently entropic
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Lasting global peace is achievable—not through curtailment, but through discovery
The ESPT framework and the search for non-radiating energy (gravity) represent our attempt to move from diagnosis to solution.